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I am an Assistant Professor of Economics at UCLA and a research affiliate of the Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Global Working Group (HCEO) and the NBER. My research interests include policy evaluation, causality, and applied econometrics. A common theme in my work is the identification, estimation, and inference of causal effects. Recently, I have focused on using revealed preference analysis to improve causal inference in social experiments and on applying machine learning techniques to perform policy evaluations. I have examined various social experiments, including the Perry Preschool Intervention, the High/Scope Comparison Study, the Abecedarian Project, the Nurse-Family Partnership, the Jamaican Intervention, Programa Primeira Infância Melhor in Brazil, Oportunidades in Mexico, and Moving to Opportunity. Additionally, I have investigated observational data from several countries, including the US, Germany, and China. I have worked on approximately two dozen research articles, which have been cited over 9,200 times. 

Google Scholar Statistics: h-index 27, ​i10-index 33.

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​​Working Papers

Identification and Estimation in a Class of Potential Outcomes Models

(with Andres Santos and Manu Navjeeva,  2023)


The Economics of Monotonicity Conditions: Exploring Choice Incentives in IV Models
(with Moshe Buchinsky and Paul Gertler, 2023)
[Paper] [Appendix]

Ordered, Unordered and Minimal Monotonicity Criteria

(with Manu Navjeeva,  2022)


Catalyst for Change: How Trade Liberalization in China Improved Mental Health

(with Bilge Erten, Pinar Keskin, Huihua Xie, and Lianming Zhu, 2023)
[Paper] [Appendix]

An Analysis of the Memphis Nurse-Family Partnership Program

(with James Heckman, Margaret Holland, Kevin Makino, David Olds, Maria Rosales-Rueda, 2017)


Submitted and R&R  Papers

Inference with Imperfect Randomization: The Case of the Perry Preschool Program

​(with James Heckman and Azeem Shaik, Journal of Econometrics, 2023, Conditionally Accepted)


Causality and Econometrics

(with James Heckman, Journal of Econometrics, 2023, Conditionally Accepted)


Beyond Intention to Treat: Using the Incentives in Moving to Opportunity to Identify Neighborhood Effects

(Journal of Political Economy, 2022, Resubmitted)


​​​Effect of the Jamaica Early Childhood Stimulation Intervention early childhood stimulation on schooling and labor market outcomes at age 31

(with Susan Chang-Lopez, Sally Grantham-McGregor, Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Amika Wright, Christel Vermeersch, and Susan Walker, 2022 )





Home: Submitted

Published Papers

The Econometric Model for Causal Policy Analysis

(with James Heckman),  Annual Reviews of Economics, 2022.


Causal Inference of Social Experiments using Orthogonal Designs

​(with James Heckman),  Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2022.


The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters

​(with Christian Dippel, Robert Gold, and Stephan Heblich), The Economic Journal, 2021. 


Cognitive, psychosocial, and behaviour gains at age 31 years from the Jamaica early childhood stimulation trial

(Susan Walker, Susan Chang, Amika Wright, James Heckman, and Sally Grantham-McGregor)

Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 2021.


Unordered Monotonicity

​(with James Heckman), Econometrica, 2018, vol. 86(1), pages 1-35.   

[Paper]  [Appendix]

The Effects of Two Influential Early Childhood Interventions on Health and Healthy Behaviour 
(with  Gabriella Conti and James Heckman), The Economic Journal, 2016, Vol. 126, pp. 28-65.

​​​[Paper] [Appendix]


Causal Analysis After Haavelmo
(with James Heckman), Econometric Theory, 2015, Vol. 31, pp 115-151.



Econometric Mediation Analyses: Identifying the Sources of Treatment Effects from Experimentally Estimated Production Technologies with Unmeasured and Mismeasured Inputs

​(with James Heckman), Econometric Reviews, 2015, Vol. 34, pp 6-31.


Labor Market Returns to Early Childhood Stimulation:

A 20-year Follow-up to an Experimental Intervention in Jamaica
(with Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeersch, Susan Walker, Susan Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor), Science, 2014, Vol. 344, n. 6187.

​​​[Paper]  [Appendix]

Early Childhood Investments Substantially Boost Adult Health 
(with Frances A. Campbell, Gabriella Conti, James J. Heckman, Seong Moon, and Elizabeth P. Pungello), Science 2014, Vol. 343, n. 6178, pp. 1478-1485.

​​​[Paper] [Appendix]

Understanding the Mechanisms Through Which an Influential Early Childhood Program Boosted Adult Outcomes
(with James Heckman and Peter Savelyev), American Economic Review, 2013, Vol. 103, n. 6, pp.  2052-2086.

​​[Paper]   [Appendix]

The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program 
(with James J. Heckman, Seong Moon, Peter Savelyev and Adam Yavitz), Journal of Public Economics, 2010, Vol. 94, n. 1, pp. 114-128.

[Paper]   [Appendix]

Analyzing Social Experiments as Implemented: A Reexamination of the Evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program
(with James Heckman, Seong Moon, Peter Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz), Quantitative Economics, 2010, Vol. 1, n. 1, pp. 1-46.

[Paper]   [Appendix]

Evaluation of Small-Sample Compromised Randomization: Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Intervention on Health and on Addictive Behavior
Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2010, Vol. 30 n. 2, pp. 451-485.


Economic Returns to Early Education for Disadvantaged Children: Lessons from the High-Scope Perry Preschool Program (with James J. Heckman, Seong Moon, Peter Savelyev and Adam Yavitz) Journal of Finance and Business, 2010, Vol. 3, pp. 39-51.

Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis
(with Marco Bonomo and Betina Martins), Emerging Markets Review, 2003, Vol. 4, n. 4, pp. 368-396.



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